I've often been interested in the results of opinion polls that I see. Many times I see that the numbers presented by the polls do not correspond with the general impression I get from my conversations with people. This led me to question the samples being used. Is it that I am so isolated in my general philosophies that I am unable to readily recognize the existence of those whose opinions may differ? Or are the stewards of responsible dissemination of information ([/sarcasm]), better known as "mainstream media," failing to provide you and me with accurate statistical data.
To be fair, my discussion here is a review of only the one poll I looked into. The numbers seemed to correspond with every other poll out there so I figured it as safe of a one sample investigation as I could find. So far, I'm batting 1.000% on a disturbing presentation of "America's opinion."
My interest in the possibility of skewed opinion polls actually reached its pinnacle during the 2004 campaign for the U.S. Presidency. I watched the campaigns fully realizing that John Kerry would not only win the election, but win convincingly. How did I know? Well, all the polls told me so. However, the results of the election were quite the opposite. Instead of George W. Bush losing the election, he actually pulled out a convincing victory. I remember watching John Stewart on the Daily Show where he asked his guest (don't remember the guest, sorry) if mainstream media was really so out of touch with the people of the nation.
I see the same trend today. There is no doubt in my mind that Barak Obama will win the election easily if I look at the polls. Here are some of the results of a recent Yahoo! / AP poll.
- Better grasp on the economy - Obama - +15%
- Trusted to improve the economy - Obama - +10%
- Trusted to handle the financial crisis - Obama - +7%
- Understanding of how the financial crisis affects people - Obama - +15%
The AP-Yahoo! News poll included 841 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 3-13 ... Included were interviews with 373 people who initially said they were Democrats, 252 Republicans and 214 independents...My first point of confusion here falls in the total number of "likely voters." According to my rusty, trusty calculating machine, 373 + 252 + 214 = 839. I know it is only two more people but I would still like to know who the two people are who bring the total to 841.
The next interesting point is the percentage of people affiliated with the two major political parties in the election. 44% of those polled are Democrat and 30% are Republican, a difference of 14%.
Now compare that 14% weighted toward Democrats to the outcome of the poll. As mentioned before, there was an average of 12% advantage to the Democratic candidate, Barak Obama. I'm extremely leery of coincidences and I don't think we have one here.
Using a weighted poll gives weighted results. I don't like the concept of an opinion poll being weighted in one philosophical direction or another. Journalists, by creed, are supposed to be "accurate and fair". They are supposed to be "independent, unmoved by pride of opinion or greed of power,... never careless." They are to be "a public trust; that all connected with it are, to the full measure of responsibility, trustees for the public."
Presenting the public a weighted poll is irresponsible. The media knows best the effects of peer pressure on the populace, it uses it all the time in advertising. What weighted polls do is entice others to the beliefs presented in the poll. "Everyone else thinks this way, you should too." Why would Yahoo! and the AP present skewed data? Is this not against their supposed core beliefs?
I can say only one thing in reply. Shame on the journalists who would present weighted opinion polls as the opinion of the American people, you dishonor your profession.
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